EUR/USD: Аналитики банка Scotiabank сохраняют нейтрально-медвежий взгляд на пару EUR/USD в краткосрочной перспективе. Несмотря на то что восстановление курса на прошлой неделе породило надежды на движение к 1,1700, технические индикаторы и фундаментальные расхождения указывают на риски снижения.
Техническая картина: поддержка 1,15 под угрозой
После резкого ухудшения индекса относительной силы (RSI), который кратковременно превысил уровень 70 в конце августа, импульс угас.
- Основная поддержка:Level1,1500. The bank is closely monitoring this psychological and technical mark.
- Resistance:Short-term resistance is limited to the area ahead of the mark1,1650.
- Moving averages:The latest decline brought the price to a low in the 40s and testing the 50-day moving average at1,1531. At the time of Scotiabank's assessment, the pair was at1,1539.
Gap between rate and rates
The bank points out the discrepancy between the current exchange rate and what the interest rate differential dictates:
- Sentiment remains positive for the euro as german and uS two-year Bond yield Spreads remain relatively stable.
- A fair value (FV) model based solely on these spreads estimates only1,1633.
Scotiabank emphasizes that this is a reference model and not a guarantee that the pair will return to this number. However, the very fact that the market is trading below the level justified by rates indicates hidden pressure on the euro.
ECB's hawkish Rhetoric against weak data
The single currency is supported by comments from European Central Bank officials:
- Executive Board member Isabelle Schnabel described the recent rise in energy prices as"very disturbing", hinting at a readiness to fight inflation.
- Leading indicators:The ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany is published on Tuesday. This is a leading indicator of industrial production (12–18 months).
- If the data turns out to be strong, it will help the euro recover.
- However, Monday's fall showed that support from bond yields is not enough to overcome current demand for the US dollar.
Outcome:Scotiabank expects the pair to remain under pressure until there is further evidence of an improving eurozone economy or a change in the Fed's tone. For now the level1,15remains a key line of defense for euro buyers.