United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Kwek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann saw the end of short-term growth momentum in the Australian dollar and British pound. In their opinion, both currencies entered the phase of technical correction after the stormy August.
AUD/USD: Bounce before fall?
The Australian dollar failed to gain a foothold above the key level0,7200. After reaching the maximum0,7208the couple turned around sharply.
- Short term range (24 hours):Trade expected between0.7155 and 0.7180. Friday's sharp collapse followed by a partial recovery indicates a lack of strength among the bulls.
- Forecast for 1–3 weeks:The monthly growth cycle is complete. The indicators are overbought and there is a negative divergence. This opens the way for a deeper rollback to the goal0,7120.
- Bearish scenario cancellation condition:Only a confident breakthrough of “strong resistance”0,7200will return the pair to a sideways trend and prevent a decline. Otherwise, the medium-term goal is a one-year maximum0,7280— remains questionable [sources=[your text]].
GBP/USD: Deeply oversold limits the fall
The British pound is showing high volatility within a narrow corridor. Friday drop to1,3527replaced by consolidation near1,3550.
- Short term range (24 hours):Trade expected within1.3535–1.3570. Despite severe oversold conditions that make further sharp declines unlikely, momentum remains weak.
- Forecast for 1–3 weeks:Downside risk remains. The key level that the bank monitors is1,3480.
- Critical barrier:While the pair is trading below the level1,3600, which is “strong resistance”, the underlying trend suggests a gradual slide of quotes downwards.
Outcome:For both pairs, the August driver has been exhausted. AUD/USD is correcting due to technical overheating, while GBP/USD is suffering from fundamental uncertainty around Bank of England policy. The coming days will show whether the movement will be limited to a test of support levels (0,7120 and 1,3480) or develop into a full-scale trend change.