Золото: Несмотря на недавнюю волатильность, вызванную ожиданиями действий Федеральной резервной системы США, крупнейшие инвестиционные банки сохраняют сверхоптимистичный взгляд на золото. UBS и Standard Chartered указывают на фундаментальный сдвиг в структуре спроса, где главную роль теперь играют центральные банки.
Central banks are the main buyer (over 1000 tons)
UBS highlights the unprecedented level of official demand:
- Average purchases:Central banks are buying approx.1000 tonsgold per year for the last four years. This is approximately twice as much as in the previous decade.
- China's Actions:In July, the People's Bank of China purchased almost20 tons. This is the largest monthly volume since October 2023.
- Motivation:The driving force remains the diversification of reserves and the long-term desire to reduce the dependence of the global financial system on dollar assets.
ETFs are back in the game
Помимо официальных институтов, возвращается интерес частных инвесторов. В июле биржевые инвестиционные фонды (ETF), обеспеченные золотом, зафиксировали чистый приток средств, причем основной спрос пришелся на европейские структуры. Это сигнализирует о том, что институциональный капитал снова рассматривает золото как базовый защитный актив.
Why high rates don't scare Bulls
Typically, rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar put pressure on gold, as holding the metal does not generate coupon income. However, UBS believes that this negative will be offset by other factors:
- Persistent structural inflation.
- Geopolitical uncertainty.
- Concerns about the credibility of western fiscal policies.
“We view gold as strategic protection and portfolio diversification, and not as a tactical decision dependent on the next Fed decision,” the bank emphasized [sources=[your text]].
Consensus forecast: path to $5000
UBS's view is shared by other major players:
- Standard Chartered:Recently raised my target to$5000per ounce.
- Strategic approach:Banks agree that the current sell-off or temporary stagnation is Just a pause in the long-term upward trend.
The result for the investor:Analysts urge ignoring short-term fluctuations caused by US inflation data. The main trend is set by sovereign funds and regulators, who are buying physical metal regardless of whether the Fed leaves the rate unchanged or raises it at the next meeting.