Trade recommendations and foreign currency forecasts from leading world banks

Forecasts of Forex

Мировые финансовые институты активно пересматривают свои торговые рекомендации и прогнозы по валютным курсам, опираясь на меняющуюся макроэкономическую обстановку и ожидаемые действия центральных банков. Ключевым фактором, влияющим на прогнозы, является ожидаемое смягчение денежно-кредитной политики Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС) США, что, по мнению многих аналитиков, приведет к ослаблению доллара.

DANSKE BANK TUN DANSKED DENTURE: UBS forecasts

Danske Bank retains a “bear” to the dollar, explaining this more “pigeon” by the Fed’s policy and a decrease in confidence in American assets. As a result, the bank predicts the strengthening of the euro against the dollar, expecting a coupleEUR/USD will Reach 1.23 within 12 months.

UBS also expects the softening of the Fed’s policy will undermine the dollar position. In addition, the bank notes the role of the Swiss Frank as a protective asset, which can lead to an increase in demand for it during periods of uncertainty. UBS forecast for pairUSD/CHF - decrease to 0.76 for 12 monthsWhich will become the lowest indicator over the past 15 years.

Pound sterling: short -term stability and long -term risks

Goldman Sachs видит потенциал для краткосрочной устойчивости фунта стерлингов, однако сохраняет осторожный прогноз на долгосрочную перспективу. Банк по-прежнему ожидает снижения процентных ставок в Великобритании до 3,0% в следующем году и указывает на фундаментальную уязвимость британской экономики. В связи с этим, Goldman Sachs прогнозирует снижение курса GBP/EUR up To 1.11 for 12 months.

Standard Chartered also expects a weakening of pounds against the euro. The bank believes that pairGBP/EUR will reach the level of interest in sales above 1.16 and in the long run may again drop to almost 1.1250.The reason for the resumption of pounds of sterling, according to Standard Chartered, is a more likely reduction in interest rates by the Bank of England (BOE) compared to the European Central Bank (ECB) over the next 12 months.

Alternative currencies: Prospects of the Australian and New Zealand dollar

Anz predicts that by the end of the year the courseNZD/GBP will be 0.4460, and NZD/EUR - 0.5170.

UBS Investment Bank recommends to open long positions onAUD/USD at 0.64 or below, offeringAud/CHF and AUD/CNYas additional foreign currency pairs for long australian positions.

Bank Of america Recommendations

Bank of America recommends opening a deal at a price1.1612 in a pair of EUR/USD with the aim of 1.20 by the end of the year and a stop loss at 1.1392.

Bank of America has retained a “bearish” forecast for the Nok/SEK currency pair, predicting the continuation of the descending trend to a mark of 0.90.

Conclusion

Общий тренд, прослеживающийся в прогнозах ведущих финансовых институтов, указывает на ожидаемое ослабление доллара США на фоне смягчения денежно-кредитной политики ФРС. В то же время, перспективы других валют, таких как евро, фунт стерлингов, австралийский и новозеландский доллары, оцениваются по-разному, в зависимости от специфики экономической ситуации и ожиданий относительно действий центральных банков соответствующих стран. Инвесторам следует внимательно следить за развитием событий и учитывать прогнозы экспертов при принятии инвестиционных решений, помня о том, что валютный рынок подвержен высокой волатильности и непредсказуемости. Важно помнить, что прогнозы — это лишь вероятностные сценарии, и реальная динамика валютных курсов может отличаться от ожиданий.

Key factors affecting trading recommendations and currency forecasts:

  • Monetary policy of central banks:Decisions of central banks on interest rates and quantitative mitigation programs have a significant impact on foreign exchange rates. Expectations of mitigation of politics, as in the case of the Fed, usually lead to a weakening of the currency.
  • Economic growth:The rates of economic growth in different countries also affect foreign exchange rates. A stronger economic growth usually supports the strengthening of the national currency.
  • Inflation:The inflation rate is also an important factor. High inflation can lead to a weakening of the currency, especially if the central bank does not take measures to contain it.
  • Political stability:Political stability and geopolitical risks can also influence foreign exchange rates. Uncertainty and political risks usually lead to a weakening of the currency.
  • The mood of investors:The mood of investors and their attitude to risk can also affect foreign exchange rates. During periods of uncertainty, investors are often looking for “quiet harbor”, such as the Swiss franc, which leads to the strengthening of these currencies.
  • Trade balance:The state of the country's trading balance (the difference between export and import) can also affect the exchange rate. The surplus of the trading balance usually supports the strengthening of the national currency, and the deficit is weakening.

Recommendations for investors:

  • Diversification:Do not invest all funds in one currency. Diversification of the currency portfolio can reduce risks.
  • Risk accounting:The foreign exchange market is subject to high volatility. Investors should take into account risks and not invest funds that they are not ready to lose.
  • Consultations with experts:Before making investment decisions, it is recommended to consult financial experts.
  • Follow the news:It is important to monitor the news and events that can affect foreign exchange rates.
  • Use hedging tools:To protect against foreign exchange risks, you can use hedging tools, such as foreign exchange options and futures.

In conclusion, the foreign exchange market is a complex and dynamic environment, which is affected by many factors. Investors should carefully analyze the situation and take into account trading recommendations and expert forecasts, but remember the risks and make informed decisions.

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