The Swiss banking giant UBS has published updated forecasts in foreign exchange pairs, reflecting the changing economic conditions and the policy of central banks.
After the successful achievement of previous targets, UBS analysts adjusted their expectations for the nearest quarters and years.
EUR/USD: Optimism Persists
UBS retains an optimistic view of the euro with respect to the US dollar. The target indicator at the end of the third quarter remains at the level1,2000, and by the end of the year, growth is expected to1,2300. This confirms the Bank's confidence in the power of the European economy and the potential for further strengthening the euro. The previous target indicator for the second quarter of 1.1800 was successfully achieved.
USD/JPY: Revision towards weakening yen
Unlike the euro, the forecast for Japanese yen was revised towards weakening. The target indicator for a pair of USD/JPY for the end of the third quarter is increased from 135.00 to140,00. However, the forecast at the end of the year remains at the level130,00What implies the possible restoration of yen in the long term.
EUR/CHF: Restrained Expectations from SHNB
UBS reduced the target indicator for the EUR/CHF pair at the end of the year before0,9400. This indicates more restrained expectations regarding the influence of the policy of the Swiss National Bank (SHNB) to strengthen the euro in relation to the Swiss Frank. Earlier, the bank predicted the achievement of 0.9650 by the end of 2025.
USD/CHF: "Bear" forecast is preserved
Despite the fact that the USD/CHF pair has already exceeded the target UBS level at the end of the second quarter of 0.8050, the bank retains a “bear” forecast. Further decrease is expected to0,7650by the end of 2025.
EUR/GBP: adjustment towards strengthening euro
UBS adjusted its forecast for pound sterling, setting a new target indicator at the end of the third quarter -0,8700for the exchange rate of EUR/GBP after reaching the previous target indicator at the end of the second quarter - 0.8600. The target indicator at the end of the year remains at the level0,8800with an expected retail range from 0.8450 to 0.8800.
EUR/SEK: Long -term forecast revised
UBS reviewed its forecast for the EUR/SEK pair at the end of 2025 from 10.50 to10,75, preserving the forecast for the end of 2026 at 10.60. The third quarter UBS predicts the EUR/SEK course at the level10,90with a potential range of 10.75–11.30.
USD/SEK: EUR/USD and EUR/SEK -based forecasts
Taking into account the bull forecast UBS by EUR/USD, this means forecasts for a pair of USD/SEK at the level9,08in the third quarter,8,74by the end of 2025 and8,98by the end of 2026.
In conclusion:
Updated forecasts for foreign exchange pairs reflect a complex and dynamic situation in the foreign exchange market.
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