The global currency market continues to remain dynamic and unpredictable, and analysts from leading financial institutions are actively revising their currency forecasts.
The focus is on the outlook for the euro, US dollar, pound sterling, Australian dollar and Japanese yen. Here are the key forecasts for investors to consider:
Euro versus US dollar (EUR/USD): Weakening dollar is the main driver of growth
Despite the current volatility, a number of experts still see potential for the euro to strengthen against the US dollar.HSBCmaintains its forecast that the EUR/USD pair will reach1.20 by the end of 2025. The key factor, according to the bank, is the weakening of the dollar. However, HSBC analysts emphasize that most of the growth has already occurred and do not expect a multi-year uptrend for EUR/USD.
A similar forecast is voiced byING, also waitingEUR/USD at 1.20 by end of 2025.
Pound Sterling (GBP): Expected to decline in Q4 2025
In contrast to the optimistic forecasts for the euro, the prospects for the pound sterling look less rosy.Mufgstill expects the British currency to lose ground by the time the autumn 2025 budget is published. The bank predicts a depreciationGBP/EUR to 1.1240. This suggests that MUFG sees potential for the euro to strengthen against the pound in the medium term.
Australian Dollar (AUD): Support from Overall Yield Trends
The Australian dollar, on the other hand, could benefit from favorable yield trends.UBSrecommends buyingAUD / USDat a price below 0.65 and raised its forecast for September 2026 to0,72from 0.70 previously. This indicates UBS's confidence in the Australian currency's strength in the long term.
US dollar vs Japanese yen (USD/JPY): Political factor in Japan
The political situation in Japan also has an impact on currency forecasts.INGraised its forecast for the pairUSD / JPYat the end of 2025 from 140 to148 после избрания Такаити лидером Либерально-демократической партии Японии и, как ожидается, следующим премьер-министром. Это говорит о том, что ING ожидает дальнейшего ослабления иены по отношению к доллару США, возможно, из-за изменений в монетарной политике или других экономических факторов, связанных с новым руководством страны.
Conclusions and recommendations:
- Weakening US dollarremains a key driver of the EUR/USD outlook.
- Pound sterlingcould face pressure ahead of the 2025 autumn budget.
- Australian dollarlooks promising due to favorable yield trends.
- Political situation in Japaninfluences the forecast for USD/JPY.
Инвесторам следует учитывать эти прогнозы при принятии решений, однако важно помнить, что валютный рынок подвержен влиянию множества факторов, и прогнозы могут меняться. Рекомендуется проводить собственный анализ и учитывать риски, прежде чем принимать какие-либо инвестиционные решения.
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