В последнее время на валютном рынке наблюдается повышенный интерес к динамике доллара США и его отношению к основным мировым валютам, в частности, к евро. Недавние аналитические отчеты от ведущих финансовых институтов, таких как CIBC, Westpac, Rabobank и RBC Capital Markets, рисуют картину потенциального ослабления американской валюты в среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективе, хотя и с различными временными рамками и уровнями прогнозов. Прогноз евро к доллару ниже.

CIBC Euro to Dollar Forecast: Imminent dollar weakening and forecast of 1.22 by mid-2026

The Canadian bank CIBC was one of the first to express confidence in the imminent weakening of the US dollar. Bank analysts believe that current trends indicate an inevitable decline in the value of the US currency. As a guide, CIBC forecasts that the EUR/USD pair will reach1.22 in the second quarter of 2026. This forecast implies that the euro will strengthen against the dollar over the next two years.

Westpac: Gradual dollar decline amid doubts over US growth and Fed policy

Australian bank Westpac shares the view that the dollar is likely to weaken, but sees this process as more gradual. The bank calls the main drivers of this scenariodoubts about the prospects for economic growth in the United States and expected gradual reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. As the Fed eases its monetary policy, the dollar may lose its attractiveness for investors. Westpac forecasts that over the next two years the EUR/USDwill strengthen to 1.27. This is a more optimistic forecast compared to CIBC, indicating a more significant strengthening of the euro.

Euro to dollar forecast from Rabobank: Instability and postponement of euro strengthening

Dutch bank Rabobank offers a more cautious view of the near future. The bank is waitingunstable trading around 1.16 until the end of 2025. This means that the EUR/USD pair may remain in a relatively narrow range, exhibiting fluctuations but without a clear trend. Although Rabobank still forecastspossible movement of the EUR/USD pair towards 1.20, he believes thatthis deadline may be postponed to spring 2026. This forecast indicates that the path to strengthening the euro may be more protracted and subject to corrections.

RBC Capital Markets: Multi-year dollar decline despite near-term headwinds

The Canadian bank RBC Capital Markets, in turn, notesmixed influence of the dollar in the short term. This means that the dollar could either strengthen or weaken in the coming months, depending on current market factors. However, in the long term, the bankstill convinced that the dollar has begun a multi-year decline. RBC acknowledges thatdifficulties in the eurozone could limit euro growth, but nevertheless predicts that byby the end of 2026, the EUR/USD rate will be 1.24. This forecast falls between CIBC's and Westpac's estimates, suggesting a moderate but sustained euro strengthening.

General trends and conclusions:

Despite differences in specific numbers and time frames, all four banks agree onpotential weakening of the US dollar in the medium to long term. The main factors contributing to this are:

• US economic growth slowdown:If the American economy shows signs of substitution

• Gradual reduction of interest rates by the Federal Reserve:The Fed's expected monetary easing could make the dollar less attractive to investors compared to other currencies, where rates could remain higher or fall more slowly.
• Possible recovery of the eurozone economy:While some banks have noted difficulties in the eurozone, the general mood suggests that these problems can be overcome, leading to a stronger euro.

Differences in forecasts:

The main difference between banks isthe speed and scale of the expected weakening of the dollar.

• CIBC and Westpacsee a more pronounced and relatively rapid strengthening of the euro, with forecasts of 1.22 and 1.27 respectively by mid-2026.
• Rabobanktakes a more conservative position, expecting a period of instability and a later achievement of the 1.20 level (spring 2026).
• RBC Capital Marketspredicts a multi-year decline in the dollar, but with a more moderate rise in the euro to 1.24 by the end of 2026, while acknowledging possible headwinds.

What does this mean for investors?

Эти прогнозы указывают на то, что инвесторам, возможно, стоит пересмотреть свои позиции относительно доллара США. Укрепление евро против доллара может открыть возможности для инвестиций в европейские активы или для хеджирования валютных рисков. Однако, важно помнить, что валютные рынки подвержены высокой волатильности, и прогнозы могут меняться в зависимости от развития экономических и геополитических событий.

Key factors to keep an eye on:

• US inflation data and Fed decisions:Any surprises in inflation data could affect expectations for future Fed policy.
• US and Eurozone Economic Indicators:The dynamics of GDP, employment, industrial production and consumer confidence in both regions will play a decisive role.
• Geopolitical situation:Any significant geopolitical events can have a significant impact on exchange rates.

Overall, leading banks are inclined to believe that the US dollar is at a crossroads, and in the medium term its position may weaken, which will lead to a strengthening of the euro. However, the specific timing and extent of this movement remain subject to varying interpretations.

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