Pound: ING doubts growth prospects, geopolitics in the spotlight

British pound

Lbis facing significant headwinds and ING analysts see little reason to be optimistic about its growth against the US dollar.

In its forecast, ING expresses doubts about the prospects for the British economy and predicts thatGBP/USD will not reach 1.40. Moreover, they predict thatover the next six months the GBP/USD pair will reach 1.33.

The main reason for ING's pessimism issignificant risk of deterioration in the UK economic situation in the second half of 2025, which affects the pound.

Despite this, ING remains committed to its strategydollar sales on the rise. This suggests that while they do not expect the pound to strengthen significantly, they believe the US dollar may be overvalued and subject to a correction.

However, SGM Foreign Exchange Ltd analyst Humphrey Percy has the opposite opinion. He notes thatthe US dollar will remain a currency better bought than sold for at least the next six months. His arguments are based on two key factors:

  • Ultra-high geopolitical uncertainty:In an unstable global environment, the US dollar tends to benefit from safe haven status.
  • Lack of a reliable alternative:The US dollar dominates the global foreign exchange market, accounting for 88% of all foreign exchange transactions. This makes it indispensable for many market participants, which supports its demand.

Percy points out thatgeopolitics will be a key factor influencing the GBP/USD rate this week. Any escalation of conflicts, political instability or unexpected events could lead to a strengthening of the US dollar and a weakening of the pound sterling.

In conclusion, the outlook for the pound against the dollar remains uncertain. ING выражает сомнения в росте фунта и прогнозирует снижение до 1,33 в течение шести месяцев, ссылаясь на риски для британской экономики. В то же время, другие аналитики, такие как Хамфри Перси, считают, что доллар США останется сильным благодаря геополитической неопределенности и своему доминирующему положению на мировом рынке. Инвесторам следует внимательно следить за геополитическими событиями и экономическими данными, чтобы принимать обоснованные решения относительно фунта к доллару.

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