The world of foreign exchange markets is buzzing, and analysts from leading financial institutions are actively sharing their opinions and forecasting the US dollar (USD).
Overall, the consensus is for short-term dollar strength followed by a period of longer-term weakness.
Danske Bank: US dollar And gBP/USD Forecast
Danske Bank expects the dollar to weaken in the coming months. However, they believe vulnerabilities associated with risk appetite will limit GBP/USD's upside potential to 1.38 over a 12-month horizon.
In the US, Danske sees potential for a stronger dollar in the short term. However, over the longer term, the bank expects ongoing trade uncertainty and signs of a shift away from US assets will lead to further sell-offs in the dollar.
In addition, Danske predicts that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates quarterly, with rates falling to between 3.00% and 3.25% by mid-2026. This will certainly put pressure on the dollar.
MUFG: Risk of further depreciation of the dollar
MUFG shares the opinion about a possible decline in the dollar exchange rate and recommends opening a short position on USD/JPY with a target of 138.30. This will be the lowest level since July 2023.
MUFG Analysts also expect the uS stock Market to struggle to achieve further gains, which could negatively impact the dollar's safe-haven appeal.
UOB Group: Technical analysis of AUD/USD
UOB Group provides technical analysis of The aUD/USD pair, which can indirectly indicate sentiment towards the dollar.
- 24 hour view:UOB admits that their previous forecast for AUD/USD was incorrect. They note that the situation is overbought, but the strong momentum suggests that the AUD could continue to rise, although it is unlikely that the rate will reach 0.6515.
- Review for 1-3 weeks:UOB indicates a renewed uptrend, which has increased the likelihood of AUD breaking through the 0.6515 level. The “strong support” level rose to 0.6400.
Key factors influencing the dollar:
- FRS Policy:The Fed's interest rate cut, expected by Danske, will put pressure on the dollar.
- Trade uncertainty:Continued trade uncertainty could push investors away from the dollar.
- Risk Appetite:Global risk appetite could limit GBP/USD's upside, Danske said.
- Technical factors:Technical analysis, as presented By UOB group, can help determine short-term movements in dollar-related currency pairs.
Conclusion:
Прогнозы ведущих финансовых институтов указывают на сложную картину для доллара США. В то время как краткосрочное укрепление возможно, долгосрочные перспективы выглядят менее оптимистичными из-за ожидаемого снижения процентных ставок ФРС, торговой неопределённости и потенциального оттока капитала из американских активов. Инвесторам следует внимательно следить за этими факторами, чтобы принимать обоснованные решения на валютном рынке.