USD/BRL: Октябрьские выборы в Бразилии станут главным катализатором для валютных рынков Латинской Америки. Однако аналитики Goldman Sachs предупреждают: направление движения пары USD/BRL будет зависеть не от того, кто победит (Лула или кандидат от правых), а от того, какую налогово-бюджетную политику выберет новый президент.
Goldman sachs Scenario Map
The Bank presented four main scenarios, indicating the likelihood and impact on the dollar-real exchange rate:
| Scenario | Probability | Impact on USD/BRL |
|---|---|---|
| Optimistic:Right + orthodox politics | 40% | Fall on4% |
| Moderate:Lula's Victory + discipline | 15% | Fall on2% |
| Base:Lula's victory + status quo | 35% | No changes |
| Negative:Lula + rising costs | ~10% | Growth by3% |
Note: The bank's base exchange rate forecast for the next 12 months remains at5,00, but these levels may be revised depending on the outcome of October.
Why can a right-wing candidate mean a strengthening of the real?
The most optimistic scenario (40% probability) assumes the victory of right-wing forces led by Flavio Bolsonaro, subject to a strict budget policy. In this case, Goldman expects:
- Decrease in the dollar/real exchange rate by4%.
- 10-year Interest rates fall by250 basis points.
- Setting the basic Selic rate at the level12,75%by the end of the year.
Bolsonaro’s advisers have already proposed introducing a hard ceiling on the national debt and limiting spending, which is perceived extremely positively by the bond market.
Paradox: why Can lula also be good for currency?
The victory of incumbent President Lula da Silva has a probability of about 50% (the sum of the moderate and base scenarios). Markets are usually wary of left-wing politicians, but here the situation is different:
- Status quo (35%):If Lula maintains her current discipline, the market will have little reaction.
- Moderate discipline (15%):This will lead to the strengthening of the real2%. The market values predictability more than radical change.
The only problem will be the expansionist policy (increasing social spending without sources of financing), which is included in the negative scenario (+3% to the dollar).
The carry trade is protecting real right now
Although Brazil's gross public debt has reached81.9% of GDP, the currency remains stable. Analysts call Brazil "a binary event with asymmetric returns."
The main supporting factor today is the huge difference in interest rates (“carry cushion”). The key rate in Brazil remains exceptionally high. As long as investors receive high yields on government securities, they are willing to ignore the risks of a debt crisis.
However, this shield only works for so long. The big question for October is whether the winner will be able to stabilize their finances. Reuters economists estimate that stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio would require a fiscal adjustment of2.5% of GDP. Any hint of abandoning this goal after the election could instantly nullify the advantage of high carry.
Outcome:For traders, uSD/BRL Is turning into a bet on fiscal sanity. A tight Budget (whoever it comes from) will send the dollar below 5.00. Increased Spending will provoke devaluation, whatever the political rhetoric of the winner.