In this article, we will consider the opinions of Goldman Sachs, Saxo Bank, Bofa, Mufg and UBS to understand which factors can affect the foreign exchange market and dollar courses, euros, yen, Norwegian and Swedish crowns.
US dollar: limited growth and long -term decline?
Goldman Sachshe notes that, despite the possibility of limited dollar growth against the trend, the bank still predicts its long-term decline. Over the next 12 months, it is expected that a coupleEUR / USDit will reach the mark1,25. A favorable scenario for such a development of events involves a gradual reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve System (Fed) and a slowdown in the growth rate of the American economy. These factors, according to Goldman Sachs, will weaken the support of the dollar in world markets.
Euro: revaluation and vulnerability of the French bond market
At the same time,John Hardy, Head of the Saxo Bank Global Macro Strateg, expresses a different point of view regarding the euro. He believes that the European currency is overestimated and especially vulnerable in case of serious pressure on the French bond market. If a coupleEUR / USDwill fall below the level1,1580, Hardy predicts further decrease, at least to1,14. This emphasizes the importance of political and economic stability in the eurozone to maintain the Euro exchange rate.
BOFA: Stagflation risks and long -term goals on EUR/USD
Bofaalso expects a couple growthEUR / USDBut with a longer prospect. The bank predicts the achievement of the mark1,2by the end of 2025 and1,25by the end of 2026. The main factor that determines this forecast is growing stagflation risks that can exert pressure on the dollar and support the euro.
Japanese yen: US labor deterioration and weakening of the dollar
In relation to the coupleUSD / JPYWhich is currently trading at the level147,40. Mufgretains the target indicator at the level143,50. This forecast is due to a deterioration in the labor market in the United States, which can lead to a weakening of the dollar against the yen.
UBS: Correction of forecasts for USD/JPY and prospects for Scandinavian currencies
UBSslightly raised his forecasts by pairUSD / JPY, but still expects its decline over the next 12 months. The bank plans to achieve the following targets:
- 142 pointsby December 2025 (earlier 140)
- 140 pointsby March 2026 (earlier 138)
- 138 pointsby June 2026 (earlier 136)
- New target indicator in136 pointsby September 2026.
In addition, UBS presented his forecasts for scandinavian currencies:
- EUR / NOK: 11.30 in the second quarter of 2026, 11.20 in the third quarter of 2026, 11.10 in the fourth quarter of 2026, and a new target level of 11.0 for September 2026.
- EUR / SEK: 10.80 in the second quarter of 2026, 10.70 in the third quarter of 2026, 10.60 in the fourth quarter of 2026, and the new target level 10.50 for September 2026.
Key conclusions and risks affecting the foreign exchange market:
An analysis of the forecasts of leading banks shows that most of them are inclined to weaken the US dollar in the medium and long term. The main drivers of this trend are called:
- FRS Policy:Expectations of reducing interest rates by the federal reserve system.
- Economic growth:Slow down the growth rate of the American economy.
- Stagflation risks:The potential strengthening of stagflation trends that can adversely affect the dollar.
- US labor Market:The deterioration of the situation in the US labor market, according to MUFG, is also a factor of pressure on the dollar.
However, there are risks that may affect these forecasts.Saxo Bankemphasizes the vulnerability of the euro, especially in the case of problems in the French bond market. This indicates that the political stability and economic health of individual countries of the eurozone can become important factors affecting the euro.
ForecastsUBSin pairs with the participation of Scandinavian currencies show the expectation of strengthening the euro in relation to the Norwegian and Swedish crowns. This may be due to various factors, including the monetary policy of the central banks of these countries and their economic prospects.
В целом, валютный рынок остаются динамичными, и инвесторам следует внимательно следить за макроэкономическими данными, политическими событиями и заявлениями представителей центральных банков, чтобы принимать обоснованные решения. Прогнозы аналитиков дают ценную информацию, но не являются гарантией будущих движений рынка.
Tags:currency market