USDJPY forecast by UBS

ian

Swiss banking giant UBS* maintains a bearish outlook for USDJPY over the next two years, despite the recent rise in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields.

The bank's analysts confirmed their forecast for USDJPY:

  • September 2025: 142
  • December 2025: 140
  • March 2026: 138
  • June 2026: 136

As such, UBS expects a gradual but steady depreciation of the US dollar against the Japanese yen over the next two years.

Factors affecting the forecast:

The main factor behind UBS's bearish outlook isongoing dedollarization. This process, characterized by a decrease in the dependence of the world economy on the US dollar, puts pressure on the exchange rate of the American currency as a whole.

Despite this, UBS analysts admit thatrecent jump in japanese government bond yields could slow downtrendin the USD/JPY Pair. rising JGB yields could make the japanese yen more attractive to investors, which in turn could strengthen its position against the uS Dollar.

Risks and opportunities:

UBS also notes thatbank Of Japan's (BOJ) response to rising JGB yields will be criticalfor further dynamics of USD/JPY. If rising yields prompt the BOJ to soften its current hawkish stance, it could weigh on the yen and push USD/JPY higher.

UBS Recommendations:

Given the medium-term bearish position on USD/JPY, UBS recommends to its clientssell a currency pair on the rise. The bank also offerssell growth riskfor profit, which implies the use of strategies aimed at benefiting from limited growth of USD/JPY.

In conclusion:

UBS сохраняет уверенность в снижении курса USD/JPY в среднесрочной перспективе, основываясь на ожиданиях продолжения дедолларизации. Однако, аналитики банка признают, что рост доходности японских государственных облигаций и реакция Банка Японии на это событие могут повлиять на скорость и масштабы этого снижения. Поэтому, UBS рекомендует своим клиентам использовать стратегии, направленные на получение прибыли от снижения USDJPY, но с учетом возможных рисков, связанных с изменением политики Банка Японии.

*UBSGroup AG is the largest Swiss financial holding company. It provides a wide range of financial services.

Tags:.

Comment