UBS* predicted that the euro/dollar exchange rate could rise to 1.20, provided that universal tariffs are 10% and tariffs on China are 60%.
This forecast is based on expectations of a faster decline in US growth and interest rates compared with Europe, as well as the possibility of higher risk premiums on dollar-denominated assets.
UBS recommends buying the euro on dips against emerging market currencies and
японскую иену по отношению к азиатским валютам (по отношению к сингапурскому доллару, китайскому юаню, индонезийской рупии, тайскому бату, колумбийскому песо и мексиканскому песо), ожидая более значительных движений в этих парах в течение следующих трёх-шести месяцев, чем в шорт позициях по доллару США по отношению к валютам развивающихся рынков.
UBS has identified the Brazilian real, Turkish lira and Taiwanese dollar as currencies that should perform better in the coming period.
They adjusted their fair value estimate for the USD/JPY currency pair slightly lower, to 125, and for the EUR/CHF currency pair to 1.05.
The company also forecasts that USD/CAD could potentially fall to 1.30, but this forecast could change if Canada significantly increases productivity growth.
*UBSGroup AG is the largest Swiss financial holding company, providing a wide range of financial services around the world. The place of registration of the bank and the location of its head office is Zurich.