Канадский доллар (CAD) продемонстрировал незначительное снижение на последней торговой сессии, что было вызвано ослаблением мировых цен на сырьевые товары и общим снижением аппетита к риску на рынках. Однако, по мнению аналитиков Scotiabank, это движение является временным и не отражает более широких фундаментальных показателей, которые остаются благоприятными для канадской валюты.
Canadian dollar:Short-term dynamics and fair value
In its latest report, Scotiabank notes that the recent weakening of the Canadian dollar, which led to gains in the USD/CAD pair, was excessive. The bank estimates the fair value of the pair in the area1,3590, указывая, что недавний подъем курса незначительно превысил этот уровень. Такая переоценка делает пару USD/CAD уязвимой для коррекции. Аналитики считают, что любой дальнейший рост курса будет встречен возобновлением продаж, поскольку инвесторы воспользуются возможностью продать доллар США по завышенной цене.
Fundamental factors in favor of CAD
Scotiabank emphasizes that the underlying market trends are generally in favor of the Canadian dollar. Demand for the US dollar is expected to be limited, especially in the range1.3600–1.3700. This level, according to the bank, will become a serious barrier that will limit the potential for further growth of the American currency against the Canadian one.
“Major market trends favor the Canadian dollar and we expect demand for the US dollar to be limited in the 1.36 to 1.37 range,” the report said.
Technical analysis: breakout of key levels
From a technical perspective, the picture also looks bullish for the Canadian dollar. Scotiabank notes that the USD/CAD pair has fallen below key support levels, including the long-term trend line and the area formed by the head and shoulders pattern in the range1.3690–1.3700. This zone is now seen as a stable resistance level that will curb growth attempts.
A breakout of these levels signals a possible reversal of the long-term trend in favor of a stronger Canadian dollar.
Long-term forecast: potential for significant decline
Based on a combination of fundamental and technical factors, Scotiabank forecasts that USD/CAD could continue its downward trend over the next 12 to 18 months. If current trends continue, the bank does not rule out that in the long term the rate may drop to the level1.2600–1.2700.
Thus, despite temporary volatility, Scotiabank remains bullish on the Canadian dollar, expecting it to strengthen in both the medium and long term.