Bank of America (BofA) has presented its view of the outlook for global currency markets in 2026, and the picture is mixed, but with a clear focus on a weakening US dollar and a redistribution of power between major currency pairs.Despite potential political headwinds, the bank is maintaining its guidance, offering investors guidance for decision-making.

Euro versus pound: continuation of the downward trend

One of bofA's key Forecasts is a further decline in The eUR/GBP Currency pair In 2026. the bank maintains its end-year target at0,84. This means that the British pound, according to BofA analysts, will continue to strengthen against the euro, despite possible political risks that could affect the dynamics of the pair.

Canadian dollar: stabilization in the first half of the year

Looking ahead to the coming year, Bank of America maintains a "neutral" stance on the short-term outlook for USD/CAD. It is predicted that in the first half of 2026 the exchange rate will fluctuate around1,38. This indicates the relative stability of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar during this period.

US Dollar: further weakening expected

Согласно анализу BofA, крупные распродажи доллара США, наблюдавшиеся в прошлом году, часто продолжаются и во втором полугодии. Это усиливает ожидания дальнейшего давления на доллар в 2026 году. Несмотря на уверенный старт американской валюты в начале года, общий анализ рисков по-прежнему смещен в сторону ее ослабления.

Scandinavian currencies: strengthening of the Swedish krona and mixed prospects for the Norwegian

Bank of America expects the swedish krona (SEK) To strengthen Further in 2026. despite some caution in the short term after recent gains, the bank maintains its year-end outlook:EUR/SEK at 10.50 and USD/SEK at 8.61.

For the Norwegian krone (NOK), BofA's forecasts are more differentiated. By the end of 2026, the EUR/NOK pair is expected to trade at11,30, and USD/NOK is at the level9,26. The NOK/SEK pair is expected to trade in a range0.93–0.94throughout the year, indicating relative stability between these two Scandinavian currencies.

Australian dollar: bearish outlook for the first quarter

Bank of America reiterated its bearish outlook for the Australian dollar for the first quarter of 2026, setting its target at0,63. The bank maintains its recommendation to sell AUD as a hedge against a potential market downturn.

Japanese yen: maintaining a high USD/JPY rate

Bank of America maintained its bearish forecast for the Japanese yen, according to which the USD/JPY pair will remain higher150throughout 2026. this Means that The japanese currency, according to the bank, will continue to remain under pressure against the uS Dollar.

Euro: optimistic outlook against most currencies

Overall, Bank of America reiterated its bullish forecast for the euro for 2026 against most currencies. The exception is the British pound and Scandinavian currencies, where different trends are expected. The financial institution predicts that the EUR/USD pair will reach1,22by the end of 2026. However, most of the US dollar's weakening is expected to occur after the first quarter. In addition, BofA predicts that EUR/JPY will reach189, which also indicates the strengthening of the euro against the Japanese yen.

General conclusion: risk shift towards dollar weakening

Bank of America Global Research резюмирует, что, несмотря на уверенный старт доллара США в 2026 году, анализ показывает, что риски по-прежнему смещены в сторону его ослабления. Это является ключевым фактором, который будет влиять на динамику многих валютных пар в течение года. Инвесторам следует учитывать эти прогнозы при формировании своих стратегий на 2026 год, обращая особое внимание на пары с участием доллара США, евро, британского фунта, шведской кроны и австралийского доллара.

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