Forex forecast: dollar at a crossroads, pound under pressure, euro with hope for growth

Forecasts of Forex

Financial markets closely monitor the dynamics of key currency couples, trying to predict their future movement. Analysts of leading banks, such as RBC Capital Markets, Rabobank, Bofa and UBS, offer their forecast for Forex, which draw an ambiguous picture for the US dollar, pound sterling and euro.

US Dollar: Expected depreciation, but with nuances

RBC Capital Markets прогнозирует, что обесценивание доллара США будет происходить на протяжении нескольких лет, основываясь на фундаментальных показателях американской экономики. Однако, несмотря на общий тренд к ослаблению, банк также указывает на среднесрочную уязвимость британского фунта. В этом контексте, RBC ожидает лишь незначительного роста пары GBP / USD to 1.38 by the end of 2026, while maintaining this mark and to2027.

Euro: growth potential against the backdrop of the "pigeon" Fed Policy

Rabobankadheres to softer dynamics, expecting that in the prospect of nine months a coupleEUR / USDcan reach the mark1,20. This forecast is based on waiting for a more “pigeon” position of the federal reserve system (Fed) next spring.

Bofaalso reviews his forecasts towards raising for the coupleEUR / USD. The bank now expects the rate to reach1.20 by the end of 2025 and 1.25 to the end of 2026. These figures are higher than the previous BOFA forecasts (1.17 and 1.20, respectively) and also exceed the current Bloomberg median forecast (1.18 at the end of 2025 and 1.22 at the end of 2026). This indicates growing optimism regarding the prospects of the euro.

Pounds sterling: Vulnerability and limited growth

As already mentioned,RBC Capital Marketssees the medium -term vulnerability of the pounds, which limits the potential of a pair of growthGBP / USD.

At the same time,UBSoffers a more optimistic view of a pound. According to the forecasts of the Swiss bank, toseptember 2026 GBP/USD will reach 1.40. UBS analysts note that the recent restoration of the couple after the July fall was mainly due to the short -term growth of the US dollar.

Japanese yen: UBS forecast Adjustment

UBSalso made adjustments to his forecasts by pairUSD / JPY. The bank now expects that todecember 2025 will reach 142(earlier 140). Target indicators onmarch 2026 were adjusted from 138 to 140And on june 2026 - from 136 to 138. In addition, UBS has introduced a new target indicator onseptember 2026 - 136. These changes reflect the revaluation of the pair dynamics with the bank against the background of changing economic conditions.

General conclusion:

Рынок валют остается динамичным, и прогнозы аналитиков отражают сложность предсказания будущих движений. Ожидается, что доллар США будет постепенно ослабевать, но этот процесс может быть неравномерным. Евро демонстрирует потенциал к росту, подкрепленный ожиданиями более мягкой монетарной политики ФРС. Фунт стерлингов, напротив, сталкивается с вызовами и демонстрирует ограниченный потенциал роста, хотя некоторые аналитики видят более оптимистичные сценарии. Динамика пары USD/JPY также подвержена корректировкам, отражая меняющиеся экономические факторы. Инвесторам следует внимательно следить за развитием событий и учитывать эти прогнозы при принятии своих решений.

Key points and discrepancies in forecasts:

  • US Dollar:The RBC Capital Markets expects a long -term depreciation, but other banks, such as BOFA, predict the strengthening of the dollar against the euro in the medium term, although with a slower pace than before. This creates uncertainty regarding the power of the dollar in the coming years.
  • Euro:EUR/USD forecasts demonstrate an upward trend. Rabobank and Bofa expect to reach 1.20 and higher, which is a positive signal for the European currency. An increase in BOFA forecasts compared to previous and median forecasts of Bloomberg emphasizes growing optimism.
  • Pound sterling:RBC Capital Markets sees a pound vulnerability, which limits GBP/USD growth. However, UBS offers a more optimistic look, predicting a significant growth of the couple. This discrepancy indicates various assessments of factors affecting the British economy and its currency.
  • Japanese yen:UBS adjustments by USD/JPY indicate a revision of expectations regarding the strength of the Japanese currency. An increase in target levels in the coming periods indicates the expectation of a weaker yen exchange rate in relation to the dollar.

Factors affecting the forecast of Forex:

  • FRS monetary Policy:Expectations regarding the future actions of the federal reserve system, in particular, a possible transition to a more “pigeon” policy, are a key driver for forecasts for EUR/USD.
  • Fundamental indicators of the United States:RBC Capital Markets bases its forecast for the depreciation of the dollar on fundamental indicators, which implies the impact of inflation, GDP growth, trade balance and other macroeconomic factors.
  • The economic situation in the UK:The vulnerability of the pound, according to RBC, can be associated with political instability, inflation, the state of labor market or other economic challenges specific to the UK.
  • Global economic trends:General trends in the global economy, such as geopolitical risks, prices for raw materials and dynamics of other large economies, can also affect currency courses.

В целом, валютные рынки остаются сложной и динамичной средой. Прогноз форекс ведущих банков дают ценную информацию, но важно помнить, что они основаны на текущих данных и ожиданиях, которые могут быстро меняться. Инвесторам следует проводить собственный анализ и учитывать различные точки зрения при формировании своих стратегий.

Tags:

Comment