USD forecast: consolidation, US policy and Berenberg and Wells Fargo forecasts

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Финансовые рынки находятся в состоянии постоянного движения, и прогноз по USD ведущих аналитических центров играют ключевую роль в понимании будущих тенденций. В последнее время особое внимание привлекают мнения таких авторитетных игроков, как Беренберг и Wells Fargo, относительно перспектив доллара США и его влияния на мировые валютные пары. Их прогнозы, хотя и имеют некоторые общие точки, рисуют картину неоднозначного будущего для американской валюты.

Short -term consolidation and long -term weakening of the dollar: Berenberg's gaze

Berenberg analysts predict that in the short term the dominant topic in the markets will becomeconsolidation. This means a period of relative stability, when prices will fluctuate in narrow ranges, without a pronounced trend. However, according to Berenberg, this phase will not be long.

In the long run, Berenberg expects thatuS administration policy will lead to a weakening of the dollar. Although the specific details of this policy are not disclosed, it can be assumed that we are talking about fiscal incentives, an increase in public debt or other measures that can put pressure on the cost of the American currency.

In confirmation of his words, Berenberg makes a bold forecast: by the end of 2026, steamEUR/USD will be strengthened to 1.22. This means that the euro will become more expensive in relation to the dollar. Moreover, any financial crisis in the United States can provoke an even more sharp movement, leading to the temporary growth of a pair above the mark1,30.

In addition, Berenberg expects that in the next few monthsthe profitability of US bonds will grow. This may be due to the expectations of increasing inflation or with an increase in demand for more risky assets, which, in turn, can support the dollar in the short term before long -term trends will prevail.

Wells Fargo: Decline of the dollar in 2025 and its subsequent restoration

Wells Fargo offers a slightly different view of the dynamics of the dollar, focusing on the actions of the federal reserve system (Fed). The bank predictsdecrease in the dollar in the remainder of 2025Explaining this expectedreducing the percentage rates of the Fed. A decrease in bets makes American assets less attractive for investors seeking higher profitability, which usually leads to a weakening of the currency.

In this context, the prognosis of Wells Fargo by pairGBP/USD at the end of 2025 is 1.3700. This means that the British pound will strengthen in relation to the dollar.

However, the picture is changing in 2026. Wells Fargo expectsnew growth in dollarAnd by the end of next year steamGBP/USD will weaken to 1.3000. This may be due to the revision of the Fed’s policy, a possible slowdown in growth in other economies or other factors that will again make the dollar more attractive.

In the near future, Wells Fargo also seesa slight decrease in the price of the dollar for economic reasons. The bank expectsslowing down the economic growth rate, especially in conditions of conservationhard monetary policy. Hard policy, even with a decrease in bets, may mean that the Fed will strive to control inflation, which can restrain economic growth.

Forecast synthesis and conclusions for investors

Comparing the forecasts of Berenberg and Wells Fargo, several key points can be distinguished:

  • Short -term uncertainty:Both analytical centers agree that in the near future, the dollar may encounter a consolidation period or a slight decrease. Berenberg talks about consolidation, and Wells Fargo-about a decrease due to the expected softening of the Fed’s policy and slowing down the economy.
  • Disagreements according to the long term:Here opinions diverge. Berenberg sees the long -term weakening of the dollar associated with US policy, and predicts a significant increase in EUR/USD. Wells Fargo, on the contrary, expects to restore the dollar in 2026 after a decrease in 2025, which is reflected in their GBP/USD forecast.
  • The role of the Fed:The actions of the federal reserve system are a key factor for Wells Fargo. The expected reduction in bets in 2025 is the main reason for the predicted weakening of the dollar.
  • Potential risks:Berenberg emphasizes that the financial crisis in the United States can lead to a sharp strengthening of other currencies in relation to the dollar.

What does this mean for investors?

Investors should carefully monitor the development of events on the American economic and political fronts.

  • Short -term strategy:In the coming months, it may be worth expecting the side movement of foreign currency pairs or moderate fluctuations. Investors can look for opportunities for short -term speculation on these movements.
  • Long -term strategy: Здесь возникает дилемма. Если вы согласны с Беренбергом, то стоит рассматривать возможности для инвестиций в валюты, которые могут укрепиться против доллара, такие как евро. Если же вы склоняетесь к прогнозу Wells Fargo, то стоит быть готовым к возможному восстановлению доллара в 2026 году и соответствующим образом корректировать свои позиции.
  • Diversification:Given the inconsistency of forecasts and potential risks, the diversification of the portfolio in various currencies and classes of assets remains a reasonable strategy.
  • Data monitoring:It is important to track macroeconomic data from the United States and other large economies, as well as statements by the Fed, which may affect the future policy and, accordingly, on the dollar.

В целом, доллар США находится на распутье, и его дальнейшая траектория будет зависеть от сложного взаимодействия экономических факторов, политики американской администрации и действий центрального банка. Прогнозы Беренберга и Wells Fargo дают ценные ориентиры, но не являются абсолютной истиной, поэтому гибкость и постоянный анализ ситуации будут ключевыми для успешного ориентирования на финансовых рынках.

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