Amid an ever-changing global economic picture, two leading banks, Scotiabank and ING, have provided their latest forecasts and currency analysis for key currency pairs, highlighting the potential for the Japanese yen to rise and the British pound to weaken expectedly.
These analyzes provide valuable insight into the factors influencing global markets and how they may affect the value of major currencies.
Yen: Undervalued growth potential according to Scotiabank
Scotiabank is of the view that markets are currently underestimating the Japanese yen's growth potential. The Bank identifies two key factors contributing to this potential:monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and results of trade negotiations.
С точки зрения денежно-кредитной политики, Scotiabank отмечает, что недавнее повышение процентной ставки Банком Японии вызвало определенную волатильность на рынке долгосрочных облигаций. Это, в свою очередь, побудило центральный банк к более осторожному подходу в отношении дальнейшего ужесточения политики. Однако, даже при такой осторожности, сам факт начала нормализации политики, после долгих лет ультрамягкой политики, является сигналом к потенциальному укреплению иены.
In addition, Scotiabank emphasizes the importance of Trade negotiations. successful trade agreements or Favorable international trade conditions for japan could increase demand for japanese goods and services, which in turn would increase demand for the yen.
In light of these factors, Scotiabank has a relatively dovish stance on the US dollar. The bank predicts that the pair's exchange rateUSD/JPY to weaken to 135 by end of 2025, and by the endA further decline to 125 is expected by 2026. This means that the japanese yen, according To scotiabank, will strengthen against the uS dollar.
Pound Sterling: Concerns and limited growth according to ING forecast
At the same time, ING forecasts that the British pound will face pressure and lose ground. The main reasons for this expected weakening areconcerns about fiscal and monetary policy, which, according to the bank, undermine confidence in the UK economy. Uncertainty over fiscal policy and potential risks associated with further actions by the Bank of England could discourage investors and reduce the attractiveness of the pound.
Despite these concerns, ING also predicts that the US dollar will begin to lose ground in global markets by the end of this year. This creates an interesting dynamic for the pound. In this context, the bank forecasts that the poundwill be able to match the dollar in terms of performance, but will not show significant growth. Forecast for12 months for the GBP/USD pair is 1.34. This means the pound may show some stabilization or even a slight strengthening against the dollar in the medium term, but don't expect it to soar.
Conclusions:
Анализ Scotiabank и ING рисует картину потенциального укрепления японской иены, подкрепленного изменениями в денежно-кредитной политике и торговыми перспективами. В то же время, британский фунт стерлингов, по мнению ING, будет испытывать давление из-за внутренних экономических факторов, хотя и может найти некоторую поддержку на фоне. Вот такой вот валютный анализ от банковю
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