GBP/USD: Nordea forecast predicts the weakening of the dollar and strengthen the pound

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Nordea analysts revised their GBP/USD forecast, expressing a more optimistic view of the prospects of the British pound and less optimistic - at the American dollar. In this regard, the GBP/USD forecast at the end of 2025 was increased from 1.31 to 1.40.

The key factor underlying this review is the expectationpure capital outflow fromАмерики. Nordea полагает, что период исключительности американской экономики подходит к концу, и мир переходит к более сбалансированному экономическому росту. Это, в свою очередь, ослабит поддержку доллара, поскольку инвесторы будут искать более привлекательные возможности в других регионах.

“We expect a more balanced situation in the world, which will most likely weaken the potential support of the dollar, since the markets will conclude that the US exclusivity is over,” Nordea analysts say.

In addition, the bank expresses concern aboutuS budget bill, believing that he will aggravate the country's financial problems and undermine investors' trust in the dollar. This can lead to a further weakening of the American currency.

В то же время, Nordea не прогнозирует снижения процентной ставки Федеральной резервной системой (ФРС) в этом году. Это может оказать некоторую поддержку доллару, при условии, что ФРС удастся сохранить доверие инвесторов к своей политике. Однако, даже в этом случае, аналитики банка считают, что негативные факторы, такие как отток капитала и бюджетные проблемы, перевесят положительное влияние высоких процентных ставок.

As for the pound sterling, Nordea, apparently, sees the potential for its strengthening, although it does not expect explosive growth. An increase in the forecast for GBP/USD to 1.40 by the end of 2025 reflects the belief that the pound will be able to maintain its position and even a little strengthen in relation to the dollar.

Forecast for 2026:

Nordea does not expect significant GBP/USD in 2026. This suggests that the bank sees the potential to strengthen the pound in the next two years, but does not count on further significant growth in the long term.

Key conclusions:

  • Nordea is negatively tuned to the dollar due to the expectations of the outflow of capital and fears about the US budget policy.
  • The bank more optimistically evaluates the prospects of pounds sterling.
  • The forecast for GBP/USD at the end of 2025 is increased to 1.40 from 1.31 earlier.
  • Nordea does not expect a decrease in the percentage rate of the Fed this year, which can provide some support for the dollar.
  • Significant gBP/USD Growth in 2026 is not predicted.

Important to note:This forecast is only one of the many existing in the market. Investors should take into account various points of view and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.

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