In recent weeks, financial markets have witnessed coordinated sales of American assets, which gave rise to conversations about the so -called “sale of America”.
However, how common is this phenomenon “Selling America” and is it worth investors to fear a long -term trend?
The analysis carried out by the Bank of Singapore sheds light in a historical perspective. According to their data,the simultaneous fall of the treasury bonds, the S&P 500 index and the US dollar took place only 10% of trade days since 1971.This suggests that, despite the current volatility, such coordinated sales are a relatively rare occurrence.
Nevertheless, the current situation causes concern among some analysts. In particular,ING notes that the market fears regarding the influence of the deficit bill intensified, provoking the next coordinated sale of shares and bonds in the United States, which led to the widespread fall of the dollar.
The prognosis of the weakening of the dollar:
Some experts predict a further weakening of the dollar in the near future.Mokhi-Uddin from the Bank Singapore believes that in the next 12 months the dollar will continue to weaken in relation to the euro up to 1.23, since investors are reviewing their positions in the United States.
Factors affecting the foreign exchange market:
Danske Bank Analysts emphasize thatthe influence of gradual changes in the policy on the foreign exchange market is limited. The price movement will most likely be determined by headlines associated with tariffs and currency policies, the dynamics of the treasury market and the upcoming important data in the USA.They also tactically prefer to buy EUR/USD on decline.
Long -term forecast for USD/CAD:
While short -term forecasts can be volatile, UBS retained its forecast for a pair of USD/CAD, but set a new target price at 1.34 in June 2026.This long -term target price reflects the company's expectations for a currency pair for several years and takes into account probable economic and political events that may affect the exchange rate in the coming years.
Conclusions:
Несмотря на то, что скоординированные распродажи американских активов являются относительно редким явлением, текущая ситуация требует пристального внимания. Опасения по поводу дефицита, политическая неопределенность и динамика ключевых экономических показателей США будут продолжать влиять на валютный рынок. Инвесторам следует учитывать как краткосрочные колебания, так и долгосрочные прогнозы при принятии инвестиционных решений.
In conclusion, it is important to remember that financial markets are subject to constant changes, and no forecast is a guarantee. A thorough analysis, diversification of the portfolio and consultations with financial experts are key elements of a successful investment strategy.
Tags:dollar analytics. The forecast for the dollar