Gold under attack: hawkish Powell could bring down the price of gold, but bulls are waiting for a discount

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Gold: On Friday, August 28, 2026, the precious metals markets are in a holding pattern. Amid unexpectedly high inflation, investors are wondering how tough Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's tone will be at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Inflation won't let up: background for Powell's speech

Data for the US came out alarming:

  • Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index:In July the figure increased to3,7%on an annualized basis (with the Fed target at 2%).
  • CME FedWatch Probabilities:Traders estimate the chances of a rate hike in September at33,9%, and by December the likelihood of policy tightening soars to74%.

Мэтт Симпсон из StoneX считает, что вероятность «ястребиной» позиции Пауэлла сейчас выше альтернативы. Если глава ФРС подтвердит готовность бороться с инфляцией любой ценой, это приведет к росту реальной доходности облигаций и доллара, что спровоцирует дальнейшее снижение золота от его недавних циклических максимумов.

“Buy the dip” strategy: why the dip is a gift

Несмотря на риски жесткой риторики, аналитики видят в возможной коррекции отличную возможность для входа. «Любое подобное падение будет воспринято положительно быками, которые упустили первую фазу ралли», — отметил Мэтт Симпсон. Инвестиционное сообщество нацелено на долгосрочную цель в $5000 per ounce. For those who missed the growth of August, the correction will be a chance to open positions at a better price.

What's supporting metal right now?

OCBC strategist Christopher Wong highlights that gold's fundamentals remain strong thanks to three factors:

  1. Inflows into ETFs and futures:Institutional money continues to flow into the sector.
  2. Financial stability risks:Concerns about servicing the US government debt (yield on 30-year Treasuries > 5.2%) are forcing central banks and funds to seek refuge.
  3. Government procurement:The official sector continues to buy physical metal at a record pace [sources=[your text]].

However, Wong warns of the risks of consolidation. Gold traditionally loses its attractiveness when interest rates are high, as the asset does not generate coupon or dividend income.

Silver is waiting for yields to fall

For silver, the bar is set even higher. According to OCBC strategist, the market needs a decisive break of the resistance level$70.60–$72.00for confident growth. This breakthrough is possible only if three conditions coincide:

  • A further decline in real Treasury yields.
  • Weakening dollar index (DXY).
  • Confirmation from Powell that the Fed is ready to slow down the pace of the fight against inflation to support the economy.

Summary of the day:Friday's session will be dictated by Jerome Powell. Any hints of a rate hike in September will send gold testing the lows, where buyers are already preparing limit orders in hopes of reaching $5,000.

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