Forecast for the pound rate for the dollar: Morgan Stanley and UBS see the growth potential for pound

British pound

В то время как многие аналитики продолжают следить за динамикой доллара США, два крупных финансовых гиганта, Morgan Stanley и UBS, высказывают «голубиные» настроения относительно американской валюты. Прогноз по курсу фунта к доллару указывают на потенциальный рост пары GBP/USD, что может стать интересной возможностью для инвесторов.

Morgan Stanley: Optimism regarding pounds

Morgan Stanley adheres to a “pigeon” position on the dollar, which means the expectation of its weakening in relation to other basic currencies. In its basic script, the bank predicts a significant growth of the GBP/USD pair, expecting it to reach the mark1.45 to the second quarter of 2025. This forecast is based on a number of factors, which, according to Morgan Stanley analysts, will help strengthen the British pound and weaken the dollar.

However, as in any financial forecast, there are alternative scenarios. Morgan Stanley also presented his expectations for the GBP/USD pair in the case of the development of "bear" and "bull" scripts:

  • "Bear" script:In this case, the steam GBP/USD can fall to1,35. Such an outcome can be associated with unforeseen negative events affecting the British economy or global financial stability.
  • "Bull" scenario:On the contrary, in the case of favorable development of events, the GBP/USD pair can grow to1,51. This scenario involves a stronger weakening of the dollar and/or a more significant strengthening of a pound than expected in the basic forecast.

UBS: Headdaling Strategic Recommendations

UBS also shares a positive view of the prospect of pound sterling in relation to the dollar. The bank predicts that the GBP/USD pair will reach the mark1.40 to mid -2026. This forecast, although slightly more conservative in terms of terms than Morgan Stanley, also indicates the expected strengthening of a pound.

Moreover, UBS offers a specific strategic recommendation for investors. The bank advises to usethe recent rollback of the GBP/USD pair below 1.33 as an opportunity to hedge positions in US dollars. This means that investors with dollars or positions at the risk of weakening the dollar can consider the possibility of buying pounds or other assets nominated in pounds to protect their portfolios from potential losses.

What is behind the "pigeon" moods?

The “pigeon” position on the dollar can be caused by various factors, including:

  • Expectations on interest rates:If the US federal reserve system begins to reduce interest rates earlier or faster than other central banks, this can make the dollar less attractive for investors looking for a higher profitability.
  • Economic growth:If the US economy will demonstrate signs of slowdown, while other large economies will grow, this can also exert pressure on the dollar.
  • Geopolitical risks:Uncertainty in the geopolitical sphere often leads to the flight of investors in the “safe harbor”, which traditionally belongs to the dollar. However, if these risks begin to decline, this can weaken the demand for the dollar.
  • US government Policy:Fiscal policy and other economic decisions of the US government can also affect the dollar.

Conclusions for investors:

The forecast for the pound rate to the dollar from such authoritative financial institutions as Morgan Stanley and UBS give investors valuable information for decision -making. "Pigeon" moods on the dollar and the expected growth of the GBP/USD pair suggest that:

  • Investors focused on growth:They can consider the possibility of buying pounds sterling or assets related to it in anticipation of its strengthening in relation to the dollar.
  • Investors striving for hedge:As UBS recommends, the current levels below 1.33 can be a good point of input for hedging dollar positions. This may include the purchase of a pound or the use of derived tools.
  • Investors holding dollars:They must be aware of the potential risk of weakening the dollar and consider the strategies for diversification of their portfolios.

Важно помнить, что финансовые рынки подвержены волатильности, и прогнозы не являются гарантией будущих результатов. Инвесторам следует проводить собственное исследование, учитывать свою толерантность к риску и, при необходимости, консультироваться с финансовыми советниками перед принятием каких-либо инвестиционных решений. Тем не менее, мнения Morgan Stanley и UBS указывают на потенциально благоприятную среду для фунта стерлингов по отношению к доллару в среднесрочной перспективе.

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