Scotiabank: Canadian dollar near fair value

Согласно Шону Осборну, главному валютному стратегу Scotiabank*, канадский доллар (CAD) в настоящее время торгуется вблизи своей справедливой стоимости.

А дальнейший рост канадской валюты, вероятно, будет сдерживаться политическими факторами.

В своем анализе Осборн подчеркивает, что перспективы политики центральных банков являются ключевым фактором, влияющим на курс канадского доллара в краткосрочной перспективе. Расширение спреда доходности 2-летних облигаций США и Канады примерно на 20 базисных пунктов, по его мнению, стало значительным препятствием, замедлившим недавний рост курса канадского доллара.

Earlier, the Canadian dollar was traded above fair value, but a recent decline by 0.3% against the US dollar led to the fact that the current USD/CAD rate corresponds to Scotiabank assessment models.

“The last decrease in the Canadian dollar has reduced the gap, and now it is traded much closer to our fair USDCAD cost at 1.39,” Osborn notes.

The analyst also emphasizes that the USD/CAD pair has not yet left their merchant range. It predicts that the breakthrough upwards will encounter additional resistance in the region of 1.39.

“USDCAD has not yet left its range ... The breakthrough will meet additional resistance in the area of ​​1.39,” says Osborn.

Despite the potential resistance, Scotiabank is still awaiting support in the region of 1.3750.

“We still expect support in the region of 1.3750,” concludes Osborn.

Key conclusions:

  • The Canadian dollar is traded close to fair value at the level of 1.39 USD/CAD.
  • The policy of central banks is a dominant factor affecting the Canadian dollar.
  • The expansion of the venue for the yield of 2-year bonds of the United States and Canada restrains the growth of the Canadian dollar.
  • Resistance is expected at 1.39 USD/CAD.
  • Support is expected at 1.3750 USD/CAD.

In conclusion, the analysis of Scotiabank suggests that the Canadian dollar is currently in the consolidation phase, and further movement will depend on the development of the political situation and the policy of central banks.

*Scotiabank- The third largest bank in Canada in terms of deposits and market capitalization.

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