Forecasts from UBS: The bank maintains forecasts for currency pairs, betting on a Fed rate cut and the growth potential of Asian currencies

UBS

Ниже приведены прогнозы от UBS Инвестиционный банк UBS представил обновленный прогноз по ключевым валютным парам, подтвердив ожидания снижения курса доллара США по отношению к ряду валют в среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективе. Ключевым фактором, влияющим на прогнозы, является ожидаемое снижение процентных ставок Федеральной резервной системой (ФРС) США, что приведет к сокращению разницы в процентных ставках между США и другими странами.

USD/JPY: Expectation of decline and opportunities for hedging

UBS maintains its forecast for the USD/JPY pair, expecting to reach140 by the End of 2024 And 136 by June 2026. The bank recommends using short-term jumps of the pair into the range146-148 as an opportunity to add new US dollar hedging positions. Analysts emphasize that to effectively hedge against adverse leverage, the yen will need to strengthen significantly against the dollar.

Asian currencies: Upside potential of 3-4%

In contrast to the Japanese yen, UBS sees significant upside potential for Asian currencies (excluding the Japanese yen) against the US dollar. The bank forecastsasian currencies strengthen by around 3-4% over the next 12 months. A key factor supporting this outlook is the large net international investment position (NIIP) in Asia.

GBP/USD: Upside potential to 1.40, but with risk of pullback

Despite the recent rally, UBS sees further upside for the British pound against the US dollar, forecasting the1.40 at the end of the forecast period. However, analysts warn that the recent GBP/USD rally increases the risk of a pullback due to positioning. UBS is considering a possible rollback1.36 as an opportunity to hedge uS dollar Positions.

European currencies: Rate on norwegian and swedish krona

Over the next six to twelve months, UBS sees upside potential in other european currencies such asnorwegian krone (NOK) and Swedish krona (SEK) against the pound sterling. The bank recommends selling assets with upside potential in the GBP/NOK pair above 14.10 to improve yields over the next one to three months.

AUD/USD: Limited downside risk and upside potential

Net short non-commercial positions in the Australian dollar (AUD) remain open, which UBS said could limit downside risk. Moreover, a sharp change in these positions could serve as a bullish factor for the AUD. The company predicts thatAUD/USD to reach 0.70 in the first half of 2026.

Hedging risks on low-yield currencies

UBS also sees opportunities to hedge risks associated with major low-yielding currencies such assingapore dollar (SGD), Swiss franc (CHF) and Chinese yuan (CNY) against the Australian dollar. The Bank expects a combination of spot gains and the positive impact of rolling forward positions in these currency pairs for six and twelve months.

EUR/USD Forecast:

UBS maintains its forecast that EUR/USD will range between 1.15 and 1.20 in the second half of the year and recommends that investors use any US dollar weakness to reduce dollar exposure or increase hedge ratios.

USD/CHF Forecast:

UBS analysts expect USD/CHF to trade well below 0.80 over the long term, although they note that the Swiss franc's overall upside against the dollar is not compelling due to the dollar's still high carry track.

These are the forecasts from UBS.

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