Oil market on fire: attack on Iran and prospects for explosive prices

oil forecast

On June 22, 2025, the world witnessed the escalation of tension in the Middle East: the United States struck Iran. This step, of course, will have a deep effect on the global oil market, which is already in a state of increased readiness due to geopolitical instability.

Iran, being the third largest manufacturer in OPEC with a production of 3.3 million barrels per day, plays a key role in global energy supply. The attack on the country jeopardizes the stability of supplies and provokes a sharp increase in oil prices.

Analysts of leading financial institutions are already in alarm, predicting various scenarios of the development of events and their influence on the cost of “black gold”.

Forecasts and potential scenarios:

  • CITI:According to CITI, even a reduction in 3 million barrel production per day for several months can raise prices to $ 90 per barrel. Given the current situation, this scenario seems quite likely.
  • JP Morgan: Самый пессимистичный прогноз принадлежит J.P. Morgan, который предупреждает, что если конфликт распространится на Ормузский пролив, ключевую артерию для транспортировки нефти, цена на нефть может взлететь до 120–130 долларов. Перекрытие Ормузского пролива станет катастрофой для мировой экономики, вызвав цепную реакцию в различных секторах.
  • Goldman Sachs:Goldman Sachs is already laying a prize for geopolitical risk in the amount of $ 10 per barrel at the current prices. This indicates that the market already takes into account the possibility of further escalation and interruptions in deliveries.
  • Barclays:Barclays offers several scenarios: if Iranian exports are halved, oil price can reach $ 85. However, in the case of a regional war, Barclays predicts the price above $ 100.
  • Anz:Anz analysts in the near future expect: “With the intervention of the United States, the risk that Iran will respond, blocking the supply of oil from the Middle East, has increased significantly.” They believe that "a probable outcome will be a rise in prices in the range of $ 90–95 per barrel."

Key factors affecting prices:

  • Iran's Reaction:Iran will be crucial. The overlap of the Ormuz Strait, attacks on oil infrastructure or support for proxy groups in the region can lead to a sharp increase in prices.
  • Interference of other countries:The involvement of other countries in the conflict, especially Saudi Arabia, can aggravate the situation and lead to an even greater increase in prices.
  • Oil market. Oil reserves:The presence of sufficient oil reserves in strategic reserves can soften the blow, but will not be able to completely compensate for the interruptions in deliveries.
  • Political situation:Further political decisions and diplomatic efforts will play an important role in stabilizing the situation.

Conclusion:

Атака на Иран 22 июня 2025 года стала катализатором для потенциального взрывного роста цен на нефть. Мировой рынок находится в состоянии повышенной готовности, и дальнейшее развитие событий будет зависеть от множества факторов, включая реакцию Ирана, вмешательство других стран и политическую обстановку. В ближайшем будущем следует ожидать повышенной волатильности и, вероятно, значительного

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