The forecast of the dollar to the ruble from Commerzbank

Commerzbank

Commerzbank* gave a forecast for the dollar to the ruble at the end of 2025 and 2026.

Аналитики Commerzbank ожидают продолжительной паузы в повышении ключевой ставки Центральным Банком России (ЦБР) после ее значительного увеличения в 2024 году. По мнению экспертов, инфляционное давление в российской экономике, похоже, начинает ослабевать, что позволяет ЦБР взять передышку. Однако, Commerzbank ограничивает ожидания снижения ставок до конца текущего года.

Despite the stabilization of monetary policy, Commerzbank predicts a steady increase in the US dollar and euro in relation to the Russian ruble in the coming years.

Key theses of the Commerzbank forecast:

  • Pause in raising the bets of the Central Bank:Analysts expect the Central Bank to take a pause in increasing the key rate after its significant increase in 2024. This is due to signs of weakening inflationary pressure in the Russian economy.
  • Limited expectations of betting:Despite the pause in an increase, Commerzbank does not expect a significant decrease in the key rate until the end of 2025.
  • The forecast of the US dollar to the ruble:Commerzbank predicts that the US dollar to the ruble will continue to grow in the coming years. The forecast for the end of 2025 is 95.0 rubles per dollar, and at the end of 2026 - 125.0 rubles per dollar.
  • The forecast of the euro to the ruble:Similarly, Commerzbank expects a growth in the euro in relation to the ruble in the coming years, although specific numbers are not given in the information provided.

Factors affecting the forecast:

Commerzbank forecast is probably based on a number of factors, including:

  • Geopolitical tension:The ongoing geopolitical tension and sanctions pressure can have a negative impact on the ruble.
  • The state of the Russian economy:The general condition of the Russian economy, including GDP growth rates, the inflation rate and the state of the trade balance, will play an important role in determining the ruble exchange rate.
  • Oil prices:Oil prices, as the main export goods of Russia, have a significant impact on the ruble.
  • CBR actions:Despite the expected pause, the further actions of the Central Bank in the field of monetary policy will have a significant impact on the ruble.

The importance of the forecast:

Commerzbank forecast is of interest to a wide range of market participants, including:

  • Investors:The forecast can help investors make reasonable decisions regarding investment in Russian assets.
  • Enterprises:The forecast can help enterprises plan their activities, especially in terms of export-import operations.
  • Population:The forecast can help the population make decisions regarding savings and purchases, especially in foreign currency.

Conclusion:

Commerzbank прогнозирует стабильный рост курса доллара и евро к рублю в ближайшие годы, несмотря на ожидаемую паузу в повышении ключевой ставки ЦБР. Этот прогноз следует учитывать при принятии финансовых решений, однако важно помнить, что прогнозы являются лишь оценками и могут меняться в зависимости от развития экономической и политической ситуации. Рекомендуется учитывать различные источники информации и проводить собственный анализ перед принятием каких-либо финансовых решений.

*Commercbank(him.Commerzbank) - a banking concern of Germany. In terms of assets (about 507 billion euros), the bank ranks third in Germany and twenty -third in Europe. The headquarters is located in Frankfurt.

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