Rabobank: We maintain our forecast for the USD/JPY rate

rabobank forecast

Rabobank* analysts are maintaining their 12-month USD/JPY forecast at 140.00, despite the potential impact of the US-China trade agreement.

In their analysis, they emphasize that a number of factors, including tightening monetary policy and the dynamics of the yen, will have a restraining effect on the exchange rate of the currency pair.

Impact of Yen Monetary Policy Tightening.

Rabobank notes that the strengthening of the yen this year, caused by tightening monetary policy, reduces the need for further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). This, in turn, limits the growth potential of the USD/JPY rate.

Short-term volatility and expectations of rate hikes.

Несмотря на это, аналитики подчеркивают, что быстрое ослабление иены может спровоцировать ожидания повышения процентных ставок со стороны BOJ. Это, по их мнению, приведет к активизации покупателей иены и ограничит потенциал роста курса USD/JPY в краткосрочной перспективе. Rabobank полагает, что в текущем квартале доллар США будет поддерживаться за счет закрытия коротких позиций по иене.

US-China Trade Agreement and Long-Term Forecast.

A key factor influencing the long-term outlook is a potential trade agreement between the US and China. Rabobank suggests that if the US and Japan can find a compromise on trade issues, the downward trend in the USD/JPY pair will resume in the second half of the year.

Saving forecast for 12 months.

Несмотря на потенциальные колебания курса в краткосрочной перспективе и влияние торговых соглашений, Rabobank сохраняет свой 12-месячный прогноз по курсу USD/JPY на уровне 140.00. Этот прогноз отражает комплексную оценку факторов, влияющих на курс валютной пары, включая денежно-кредитную политику, торговые отношения и динамику иены.

Key conclusions:

  • Rabobank maintains USD/JPY forecast at 140.00 for 12 months.
  • The yen's tightening monetary policy limits the need for further BOJ rate hikes.
  • A rapid weakening of the yen could trigger expectations of a rate hike and limit USD/JPY's gains in the short term.
  • A trade agreement between the US and China could resume the downward trend in the second half of the year.

Refusal of responsibility:This article is based on Rabobank analysis and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult their financial advisors before making investment decisions.

*Rabobank-dutch cooperative bank, the country's second largest bank after ING. Headquarters in Utrecht, main operational center in Amsterdam.

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